How Predicted Grades Work in UCAS Applications
Your school, college or referee supplies predicted grades for qualifications awaiting results. Universities consider them alongside the rest of your application, but each admissions team decides how much weight to give them.
A predicted grade is an estimate, supplied through your school, college or independent referee, of the result you are likely to achieve in a qualification under positive circumstances. Positive circumstances means favourable but realistic attainment supported by evidence, not the highest conceivable grade. The prediction is neither an achieved result nor a guarantee of what you will receive.
You enter qualifications that you are still studying, or whose results you are awaiting, as pending in the education section. The person or centre responsible for your reference then supplies the predictions. UCAS expects predictions for all pending qualifications unless the assessment method or structure of a qualification makes prediction impossible. How to Enter Qualifications on UCAS explains how to record the qualification itself without putting an expected result in the wrong place.
Who decides your predicted grades?
If your application is linked to a UCAS registered school or college, the centre is responsible for adding the predicted grades. Individual subject teachers frequently contribute their judgements, while a tutor, head of year, UCAS co-ordinator or another authorised member of staff collates and approves them. The precise arrangement belongs to the centre, so two schools teaching the same qualifications can reach and review predictions through different processes.
UCAS advises centres to base predictions on demonstrable evidence and professional judgement. Schools and colleges can draw on current work, internal assessments such as mock exams and previous performance, then apply their own policy to that evidence. Some publish a formal review process or an internal deadline for raising concerns; others handle the discussion through subject teachers or the staff member leading university applications.
UCAS also advises schools and colleges to set predictions independently of an applicant's university choices. Changing your intended course does not by itself provide academic evidence for a higher prediction.
Ask how your centre sets predictions before its deadline, especially if recent illness, disruption or another documented circumstance has affected the evidence available. The reference has space for relevant context, but staff need time to understand it before the application is approved.
If you apply independently, your referee is asked for predictions against the pending qualifications shown to them. If that referee cannot supply any predictions, they use the UCAS box labelled "I am unable to provide any predicted grades". UCAS then emails you to explain that your referee could not provide them.
A registered centre follows a different process when an individual pending qualification cannot be predicted. It leaves that prediction blank and explains the reason in the reference. Applicants with no pending qualifications do not need predicted grades.
The practical arrangements for choosing and approaching a referee are covered in How the UCAS Reference Works.
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This page covers one part of applying through UCAS. For the full route through choosing courses, checking deadlines, completing your application and managing what happens next, use the main UCAS process guide.
Go to the UCAS process guide →Where predicted grades appear
Predicted grades are added with the reference, rather than typed by you into the education section. Universities receive them as part of the application information used for admissions. They see the same set of predictions because one UCAS application and reference go to all your choices.
UCAS does not display the reference or predicted grades to you within your application. Your school or college can still discuss its predictions with you under its own process, so ask the relevant member of staff if you do not know what has been submitted. UCAS also states that data-protection law allows an applicant to request a copy of the reference and other personal information UCAS holds. That access route does not make the reference visible or editable inside the application.
An independent referee sees only the qualifications requiring predictions, not your full application or course choices, which gives you another reason to explain what you are applying for before requesting the reference.
Returning a centre-linked application to you for an education amendment before submission automatically removes predictions already entered in the adviser portal. Your centre then needs to enter them again before sending the application to UCAS. If the centre cannot see a qualification that requires a prediction in its adviser portal, you should check that you entered the qualification as pending in the education section.
How universities use predicted grades
Universities use predicted grades alongside achieved results, the reference, the Personal Statement responses and any other selection evidence required for the course. A prediction can help an admissions team judge whether you appear capable of meeting its academic requirements and whether to make a conditional offer while your final results are still outstanding.
Admissions policies differ. One course may place substantial weight on predictions, while another gives greater weight to achieved grades, an admissions test, a portfolio, an audition, an interview or contextual information. Meeting the advertised grades in your predictions does not guarantee an offer, because the university still considers the complete application and competition for places. A prediction below the advertised level does not create a universal automatic rejection rule, but it can make an application less competitive where predicted attainment forms a substantial part of selection.
Compare the exact subjects and grades predicted with the published requirements for each course. A predicted A in one subject does not compensate automatically for a required grade in another. Requirements expressed as UCAS Tariff points also need checking against the qualifications and combinations the university accepts, rather than treating the total as the only condition.
Several choices above your current predictions expose a substantial part of your list to the same academic risk. One ambitious choice creates a contained risk; a list dominated by courses above your predictions is broadly unbalanced. The Course Choice hub can help you reconsider the courses themselves and build a more defensible combination.
Predictions also remain separate from any offer you receive. A university sets the conditions of a conditional offer, and those conditions determine what you need to achieve. Your final results, together with any other outstanding conditions, are used when the university confirms whether you have secured the place. UCAS Offers and University Decisions Explained covers that later decision.
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Explore UCAS Process Advice →What to do if you are worried about a prediction
Start by finding out what has actually been predicted and how your school or college reached it. A useful conversation is based on the evidence staff used, the centre's published policy and any material information they did not have. Bring specific evidence such as recent assessed work, a corrected administrative record or details of documented disruption. Promising to work harder does not establish that the original calculation or judgement was wrong.
Raise the concern early enough for the centre's review process. The school is responsible for the professional judgement and is not required to increase a grade to match a course requirement. Even so, an unexplained discrepancy, omitted assessment or data-entry error deserves checking before submission.
If the prediction remains below a course requirement after review, check how the university says it uses predicted grades and consider the risk within your complete choice list. Contacting an admissions team is sensible when its published policy does not answer your situation. Ask whether an applicant with your predicted and achieved profile would be considered, without expecting a personal assurance that you will receive an offer.
Independent applicants should discuss pending qualifications with a prospective referee before entering their details. Someone who knows you professionally but cannot judge your current academic work may be suitable for the reference yet unable to make credible predictions. A former school or college, current tutor or course provider may be better placed to supply academic evidence if it agrees to support the application. Where no suitable person can predict a grade, follow the UCAS process for an unable-to-predict declaration and check directly with your university choices whether they require further evidence.
Correcting errors and reporting later changes
While a centre-linked application is still with your school or college, authorised staff can unapprove the reference, correct predicted grades and approve it again. If your application needs an education change, the centre may return it to you first and must then re-enter any predictions removed by that return.
The position is more restrictive when an independent referee has submitted the reference. UCAS does not allow that referee to amend it, even if you have not yet submitted the overall application. If you discover an error at this stage, do not send the application until you have contacted UCAS for instructions.
Once UCAS has received the application, UCAS cannot add, remove or change predicted grades. Tell your school or referee immediately if you discover that the submitted grade is a genuine data-entry error, then contact every university choice directly with an accurate explanation. UCAS advises that universities will try to accommodate genuine errors, but reconsideration is not guaranteed, particularly when a selective course has closed or filled.
An improved assessment result after submission does not rewrite the prediction held in the UCAS application. You can ask your choices whether they will accept an update or additional evidence, although each university decides what it will consider. When your final qualification result arrives, the university assesses that achieved grade against any offer conditions.
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